Прогноз на Кубок Мира 2006 по футболу или интересная теория...

 

Следующее - извлечение из книги, написанной и изданной в 2003 и сонованной на вероятности и ожидании. Это наблюдение могло конечно быть только совпадением, или всётаки нет? Джеральд Ашлей - автор основавший свою теорию на рекурсии. Если Бразилия победит и в этом году, то тогда мы никогда не услышим конеца этим теориям...

Заметьте: Всё основанно на примере отборного использования маленького набора данных, чтобы сделать вывод - точно так же как путь, которым мы выбираем только те 'факты', которые поддерживают наш взгляд или аргумент.

Почему Бразилия Выиграет Кубок мира в 2006?

Короткое извлечение от "Неуверенности и Ожидания - Стратегий для Риска Торговли" Джеральда Ашлей, изданное Джоном Вилеем и Сыновьями в апреле 2003.

В процессе написания этой книги, Бразилия выиграла Кубок мира в 2002, который точно доказывает то, что ожидалось. Вы думаете всё потому что они были фаворитами? Фактически они не были, фактически были и другие команды, но все они потерпели крах по ходу сревнования. Конечно Бразилия была обязана выиграть Кубок Мира, это было в числах. Вс спросите «как это»? Хорошо, за несколько недель до Кубка Мира, на Дальнем Востоке, кто - то заметил следующие совпадения.

Бразилия предварительно выиграла Кубок мира в 1994, и перед этим в 1970. Если Вы прибавляете 1994 к 1970, Вы имеете в общей сложности 3964.

Аргентина выиграла Кубок мира, последний в 1986, и перед этим в 1978. Если Вы прибавляете 1986 к 1978, Вы имеете в общей сложности 3964.

Германия выиграла Кубок мира в 1990, и перед этим в 1974. Да, если Вы добавляете те числа вместе, Вы еще раз получаете 3964.

Применяя эту формулу (которая оправдала себя три раза прежде) мы можем взять общее количество 3964, вычесть 2002 для соревнования этого года, и получить ответ 1962. Всё ясно, кто бы ни был чемпионами в 1962, тот и победит в 2002. Бразилия выиграла в 1962 и конечно сделала это снова в 2002! Читатели, которые желают поместить раннюю ставку на 2006 чемпионат, поймут, что, применяя ту же самую формулу победители в 2006 должны быть прежними 1958 чемпионами - кто был, да Вы предположили это Бразилия!

World Cup Historical Statistics

 

ALL-TIME TOPSCORERS 1930-02
Gerd Müller (GER) Juste Fontaine (FRA) Pelé (BRA) Ronaldo (BRA) Sandor Kocsis (HUN) Jürgen Klinsmann (GER) Helmut Rahn (GER) Teofilio Cubillas (PER) Gary Lineker (ENG) Grzegorz Lato (POL) Gabriel Batistuta (ARG) Roberto Baggio (ITA) Paolo Rossi (ITA) Uwe Seeler (GER) Jairzinho (BRA) Eusebio (POR) Karl-Heinz Rummenigge (GER) Vava (BRA) Ademir (BRA) Christian Vieri (ITA)	14 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9

TOPSCORER IN EACH TOURNAMENT
1930 1934 1938 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002	Guillermo Stábile (ARG) Oldrich Nejedly (CZE) Leonidas (BRA) Ademir (BRA) Sandor Kocsis (HUN) Juste Fontaine (FRA) Garrincha (BRA) Valentin Ivanov (SOV) Leonel Sanchez (CHI) Florian Albert (HUN) Vava (BRA) Drazan Jerkovic (YUG) Eusebio (POR) Gerd Müller (GER) Grzegorz Lato (POL) Mario Kempes (ARG) Paolo Rossi (ITA) Gary Lineker (ENG) Salvatore Schillaci (ITA) Hristo Stoitchkov (BUL) Oleg Salenko (RUS) Davor Suker (CRO) Ronaldo (BRA)	8 5 8 9 11 13 4 4 4 4 4 4 9 10 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 8

MOST GOALS IN ONE MATCH

5 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 - 4 -

Oleg Salenko (RUS) vs Cameroon in 1994. Emilio Butragueño (SPA) vs Denmark in 1986. Eusebio (POR) vs North Korea in 1966. Juste Fontaine (FRA) vs West Germany in 1958. Sandor Kocsis (HUN) vs West Germany in 1954. Ademir (BRA) vs Sweden in 1950. Juan Schiaffino (URU) vs Bolivia in 1950. Leonidas (BRA) vs Poland in 1938. Ernst Willimowski (POL) vs Brazil in 1938. Gustav Wetterström (SWE) vs Cuba in 1938.

MOST HAT-TRICKS
2-	Sandor Kocsis (HUN) vs South Korea in 1954 and vs West Germany in 1954 (4 goals). Juste Fontaine (FRA) vs Paraguay in 1958 and vs West Germany in 1958 (4 goals). Gerd Müller (GER) vs Bulgaria in 1970 and vs Peru in 1970. Gabriel Batistuta (ARG) vs Greece in 1994 and vs Jamaica in 1998. 39 other players have scored one hat-trick each.

SCORED IN MOST TOURNAMENTS

4 - Pelé (BRA) - 1958, 1962, 1966, 1970 4 - Uwe Seeler (GER) - 1958, 1962, 1966, 1970

LANDMARK GOALS
1 500 1000 1500 1916	Lucien Laurent (FRA) vs Mexico 1930. Bobby Collins (SCO) vs Paraguay 1958. Rob Rensenbrink (HOL) vs Scotland 1978. Claudio Caniggia (ARG) vs Nigeria 1994. Ronaldo (BRA) vs Germany 2002.

VARIOUS GOAL RECORDS

Fastest goal in a World Cup match was scored by Turkey's Hakan Sükür after only 11 seconds against South Korea in 2002. Latest goal was scored by David Platt of England, in their second round match against Belgium in 1990 after 119 minutes. Fastest hat-trick was made by Hungary's Laszlo Kiss against El Salvador in 1982, when he scored after 70, 74 and 77 minutes. He is infact also the only substitute to have scored a hat-trick. Oldest player to have scored a goal is Roger Milla of Cameroon when he scored against Russia in 1994. He was then 42 years and 39 days old. Youngest player to have scored a goal is Pelé of Brazil when he scored against Wales in 1958. He was then only 17 years and 239 days old. Only players to have scored in every match including the final are Jairzinho of Brazil, who did this in the 1970 World Cup and Alcide Ghiggia of Uruguay in 1950. The latter only played four games where as Jairzinho played six. Fastest goal by a substitute was made by Ebbe Sand of Denmark against Nigeria in the second round in 1998. Sand scored only 16 secs after coming on in Denmark's 4-1 win. Only players to have scored in two World Cup finals are Vava of Brazil in 1958 and 1962, Pelé of Brazil 1958 and 1970 and Paul Breitner of West Germany in 1974 and 1982. First player to score a hat-trick in a World Cup match was United States's Bert Patenaude who did this against Paraguay in the first round of the 1930 World Cup. Only player to score four goals in one match and still end up on the losing team was Poland's Ernst Willimowski against Brazil in 1938. Leonidas of Brazil also scored four goals in that match when his team won 6-5. Only player to have scored for two countries is Robert Prosinecki who represented Yugoslavia in 1990 scoring against the United Arab Emirates, and Croatia in 1998 scoring against Jamaica. First own-goal in World Cup history was scored by Ernst Lötscher of Switzerland against Germany in a first round replay game in 1938. Only player to have scored a goal plus an own-goal in the same match is Ernie Brandts of Holland in the second phase match against Italy in 1978. The Dutch team won 2-1. First substitute to score a goal was Juan Basaguren when he netted the last goal against El Salvador in Mexico's 4-0 win in 1970.

Anonymous Germany World Cup 2006 Predictions

 

Ok so the draw's been made for next summer's World Cup. It's now time to go through the ritual of predicting the outcome of the tournament, and guessing who will play who in the knockout stages. Here's my take.

I reckon that each of the groups will finish in this order:

Group A
Germany top, then Poland, Costa Rica, and Ecuador

Group B
England top, then Sweden, Paraguay, and Trinidad & Tobago

Group C
Argentina top, then Netherlands, Serbia & Montenegro, and Ivory Coast

Group D
Portugal top, then Mexico, Iran, and Angola

Group E
Czech Republic top, then Italy, USA, and Ghana

Group F
Brazil top, then Croatia, Australia, and Japan

Group G
France top, then South Korea, Switzerland, and Togo

Group H
Spain top, then Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia

Then the last 16 knockout stages:

Germany will beat Sweden
England will beat Poland
Argentina will beat Mexico
Netherlands will beat Portugal

Czech Republic will beat Croatia
Brazil will beat Italy
France will beat Ukraine
Spain will beat South Korea

Then onto the quarter finals:

Argentina will beat Germany
England will beat the Netherlands
Czech Republic will beat France
Brazil will beat Spain

And the semis...

Argentina will beat Czech Republic
Brazil will beat England

Finally...

Brazil will beat Argentina

I know a Europe vs South America final would be nicer than an all South American affair, but the bottom line is this; if Argentina get past the Netherlands in their group, I really can't see anyone stopping them all the way to the final. France would have a chance, but I somehow see them slipping up against the Czechs. In the other half of the draw, I think England would find it hard going in a potential semi against a Brazilian side playing at their best

Argentina vs Netherlands is the key game; if the Netherlands win, it mixes up the draw and will probably lead to an England-Argentina quarter (with the winner playing Brazil) and Holland facing the Czechs or the French in the other semi. I'd still bank Brazil to win either way.

Of course, if the last World Cup is anything to go by, none of this will actually happen, and the Ivory Coast will probably win the trophy…

Statistical model tackles World Cup 2002 predictions. Do they work?

 

Here is an article about statistical predictions for the Japan 2002 World Cup. Have a look how close they were. Do you think statistical models work for these kind of events?

A new statistical model of the World Cup football tournament could provide a more accurate set of predictions than either bookmakers and television pundits, according to Henry Stott, a mathematician at the University of Warwick, UK.

Stott has used a modelling technique more commonly applied to financial risk assessment to predict the outcome of every game in the 2002 competition, as well as the ultimate winners

The approach combines human intuition, in the form of bookmakers' odds, statistical analysis and brute force computer simulation. Stott first developed a similar system to pick the winners of the 1998 World Cup after entering an office sweepstake.

"I did a much cruder analysis and did quite well," he says. "Then I started to realise that it's quite an interesting synthesis of human and computer thinking."

Peter Haigh, a statistician at the University of Sussex, says the approach is much more comprehensive than regular punditry. "I strongly believe in simulations as a reliable way to generate estimations," he told New Scientist. "It's based on the sound idea that, if you want to come up with an estimate you have to take into account the path to the final."

Twice the chance

Although many bookmakers' favourites Argentina were still given the greatest chance of winning the tournament (13.2%), the model provides a number of surprising results. Brazil (9.3%) were given better odds than France (8.7%), whereas bookmakers rate France's chances almost twice as high. England (6.9%) were also given a better chance of triumphing than many people's hot tip Italy (6.7%).

In the case of Brazil, Stott believes recent poor results have overly affected people's assessment of the team's chances. He cautions that his probabilities and bookmaker's odds are only comparable in relative terms, because bookmakers reduce their prices in order to give them a profit.

The biggest surprise came in individual matches. Stott's system gave a much higher chance that underdogs would upset strong teams than bookmakers. For example, South Africa are given only a 10% chance of defeating Spain by most bookmakers, while Stott calculated this probability to be 28%.

Game of two halves

Stott's method, developed with BBC 5Live, involves calculating the strength of each team based on performances during qualification matches, as well as official FIFA rankings and bookmakers' odds. But unlike some other ranking systems, Stott also included a measure of each team's unpredictability, or "patchiness", based on previous results.

For individual matches, one team's strength and unpredictability was then compared to that of their opponents to determine the probability that each side would win, lose or draw.

To determine the overall probability that a team would win the whole tournament, Stott used a computer to run hundreds of thousands of virtual matches.

Portugal (7.9%) turned out to be the fourth most likely team to become world champions, after Argentina, Brazil and France. The team with the lowest probability of ultimate victory chance is China with a tiny 0.3 % chance, though this means they are still overpriced at bookmakers at 750-1.

Interesting Theory - Why Brazil will Win the World Cup in 2006

 

The following is an extract from a book written and published in 2003 on uncertainty and expectation. This observation could of course be just a coincidence ... Or not. Gerald Ashley is the author and is dismissive of the recurring pattern........unless of course Brazil wins, in which case we shall never hear the end of it!

Note: This is very much tongue in cheek and is an example of selective use of a small data set to make a spurious point - just like the way that we choose only those 'facts' that support our view or argument.

Why Brazil will Win the World Cup in 2006

A short extract from “Uncertainty & Expectation – Strategies for Trading Risk”

by Gerald Ashley, published by John Wiley & Sons in April 2003.

At the time of writing this book Brazil have recently won the 2002 World Cup, which is exactly what was expected. Why, because they were the favourites? Well no actually they weren’t, in fact there were many other much more fancied teams, but all of these crashed out of the competition fairly early on. But of course Brazil were bound to win the cup; it was in the numbers. What? Well in the few weeks leading up to the competition in the Far East, somebody noticed the following little relationship:

Brazil had previously won the World Cup in 1994, and before that in 1970. If you add 1994 to 1970 you have a total of 3964.

Argentina won the World Cup last in 1986, and before that in 1978. If you add 1986 to 1978 you have a total of 3964.

Germany last won the World Cup in 1990, and before that in 1974. Yes if you add those numbers together you once again get 3964.

Now for the clever (dare one say predictive) part. Applying this formula (which has been right three times before) we can take the total of 3964, deduct 2002 for this year’s competition, and get the answer 1962. Clearly whoever were champions in 1962 would win in 2002. Well Brazil won in 1962 and of course did so again this time! Readers who wish to place an early bet on the 2006 championship will realise that by applying the same formula the winners in 2006 should be the former 1958 champions – who were, yes you guessed it Brazil!