Interesting Theory - Why Brazil will Win the World Cup in 2006

 

The following is an extract from a book written and published in 2003 on uncertainty and expectation. This observation could of course be just a coincidence ... Or not. Gerald Ashley is the author and is dismissive of the recurring pattern........unless of course Brazil wins, in which case we shall never hear the end of it!

Note: This is very much tongue in cheek and is an example of selective use of a small data set to make a spurious point - just like the way that we choose only those 'facts' that support our view or argument.

Why Brazil will Win the World Cup in 2006

A short extract from “Uncertainty & Expectation – Strategies for Trading Risk”

by Gerald Ashley, published by John Wiley & Sons in April 2003.

At the time of writing this book Brazil have recently won the 2002 World Cup, which is exactly what was expected. Why, because they were the favourites? Well no actually they weren’t, in fact there were many other much more fancied teams, but all of these crashed out of the competition fairly early on. But of course Brazil were bound to win the cup; it was in the numbers. What? Well in the few weeks leading up to the competition in the Far East, somebody noticed the following little relationship:

Brazil had previously won the World Cup in 1994, and before that in 1970. If you add 1994 to 1970 you have a total of 3964.

Argentina won the World Cup last in 1986, and before that in 1978. If you add 1986 to 1978 you have a total of 3964.

Germany last won the World Cup in 1990, and before that in 1974. Yes if you add those numbers together you once again get 3964.

Now for the clever (dare one say predictive) part. Applying this formula (which has been right three times before) we can take the total of 3964, deduct 2002 for this year’s competition, and get the answer 1962. Clearly whoever were champions in 1962 would win in 2002. Well Brazil won in 1962 and of course did so again this time! Readers who wish to place an early bet on the 2006 championship will realise that by applying the same formula the winners in 2006 should be the former 1958 champions – who were, yes you guessed it Brazil!